China’s Century: Preparedness or Paranoia?
Will Rickard anticipates Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s future challenges in dealing with China’s rise.
Twenty years after Deng Xiaoping made his famous proclamation “To get rich is glorious”, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has grown to become the third-largest economy in the world, behind only the U.S. and Japan.
With China’s economy growing at an average rate of nine per cent per year since 1978, it is unsurprising that there has been a similar increase in its military expenditure. Today, China’s military spending is second only to the United States, and China controls the largest standing military in the world.
This raises an important question: does China pose a threat to Australia?
Kevin Rudd, Australia’s Mandarin-speaking Prime Minister, seems to think so. In 2008, Rudd pledged to increase the size and budget of the Australian Defence Forces, in order to prepare Australia for the “future challenges” associated with the arms build-up in Asia. Whilst Rudd never explicitly pointed the finger at Beijing, the insinuation was clear enough. Article Nine of Japan’s Constitution expressly prohibits the state from using, or threatening to use, military force. North Korea’s underdevelopment also limits its threat, while South Korea’s growth is overshadowed by China.
In China’s Unpeaceful Rise, John Mearsheimer, a leading advocate of the ‘offensive realism’ school of international relations, suggests that the U.S. will not tolerate China’s military challenge to its indirect hegemony in the region. In an effort to contain China, Mearsheimer predicts that the U.S. will forge closer ties with China’s neighbours – including South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and even Russia – and prophesies that a second Cold War is imminent. The validity of Mearsheimer’s contention has a special relevance to Australia: at his most alarmist, he suggests that China going on a rampage throughout Asia is “possible”.
If Mearsheimer is correct, the strategic importance of Australia’s natural resources becomes even more pronounced. China’s growth has been, and will continue to be, fuelled by a ferocious appetite for resources. In 2006-2007, the value of Australian coal exports surpassed $22 billion, making Australia one of the foremost coal producers in the world. If China were to attempt to secure its supply of natural resources by force, Australia would face an army about forty-two times larger than its own.
What differentiates China from historical great powers is that, whilst other states achieved dominance by raiding other nations’ resources for economic gain, China’s growth has been founded upon trade, rather than war or imperialism.
But is the fear of invasion realistic enough to justify a greater injection of taxpayer money into defence?
The historical evidence points to the contrary. Australia’s trade relationship with China has improved dramatically over recent years. China is now our foremost source of imports and, after Japan, the principal destination of our exports. Additionally, Australia’s relationship with China is not limited to economics. Our cultural relationship has been strong since the nineteenth century, with large influxes of Chinese migrating to Australia. To this day, that trend has continued and will proceed into the future. Moreover, President Hu of China makes frequent visits to Australia, which Mandarin-speaking Kevin Rudd reciprocates on a regular basis, to allow our diplomatic relations to flourish.
China has always played a role in international affairs, often as a very powerful and influential state. What differentiates China from historical great powers is that, whilst other states achieved dominance by raiding other nations’ resources for economic gain, China’s growth has been founded upon trade, rather than war or imperialism. With its current growth being achieved by peaceful means, it seems likely that this pattern will continue into the future.
These observations make the contentions of alarmist conservatives like John Mearsheimer appear hollow. Contrary to his claims, China’s neighbours are doing the opposite of ‘containing’ China’s power, by increasing their trade with the PRC in recent years, and thereby encouraging China’s growth. Ironically, Japan and South Korea are China’s two chief import sources, even though Mearsheimer believes they will be the U.S.’s most important allies in containing China.
Instead of attempting to restrain China’s power in order to prevent its hegemony in the region, China’s neighbours appreciate the mutual gains associated with trade. Also, the U.S. is currently fighting two wars and its economy is in dire straits; thus, perceivably, its unipolarity is fleeting. Mearsheimer would prefer to see an intense security competition between the U.S. and China, as opposed to a friendly relationship whereby reciprocal gains would most likely eventuate.
Of course, it would be naïve to declare that China’s threat to Australia is non-existent, because no one can confidently forecast its future actions. However, I suggest that the risk is minimal. Perhaps the main thing that we should fear from ‘China’s rise’ is not a military attack, but the crippling release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere due to coal mining and burning.
