The Real Problem with Iran

Too often, the debate about Iran comes down to the question of whether it is developing nuclear weapons.

Too often, the extremely sophisticated nature of the Iranian state is reduced to a simplistic question: should we allow a radical Islamic regime to develop a weapon powerful enough to destroy a city?

Too often, we are told that we must protect Israel at all costs, and that if the tyrannical and unstable government in Tehran develops nuclear weapons, it will follow through on its rhetoric and “wipe Israel off the map”.

But the rhetoric is just that – rhetoric. President Ahmadinejad uses such language to sustain the support of hardliners in the Iranian government. In reality, Iran has had chemical weapons capable of wiping Israel “off the map” for years. A single anthrax shell, stockpiled from the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, could wipe out Tel Aviv tomorrow. However, Iran hasn’t done this. Why? For the same reason that, if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, it would never use them. For all of their rhetoric, Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah are rational actors – autocrats and Islamic fundamentalists, sure, but still rational human beings with an inherent interest in survival. To be incinerated by American nuclear weapons in a foolhardy attempt to destroy Israel would naturally go against this interest.

So is Iran the boogeyman that American neo-conservatives and Israeli hardliners make it out to be? Surprisingly, it is – but not because of its nuclear program. Iran doesn’t want nuclear weapons to exterminate Jews; rather, Iran wants to increase its ability to project power and influence across the Persian Gulf.

This is the real problem with Iran: it has the potential to project enormous influence in the Gulf through conventional (and in the future, nuclear) means, but it cannot do so while Americans remain stationed in Iraq. As such, Iran has been working to destabilise Iraq and to encourage the United States to leave – which finally, it is. The ensuing Iraqi power vacuum, once filled by Saddam Hussein’s Sunni minority, can now be filled by Iran-friendly Shiites. With Iraq as a hapless buffer state, Iran will be free to project its influence throughout the entire Gulf. This is not a far-fetched idea – the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war just so that he could act as a buffer against Iranian expansion.

That’s why the concern of the Gulf states isn’t really Israel (which, for all intents and purposes, is an enemy in public rhetoric only), but a Shiite Iran seeking to increase its sphere of influence in a region increasingly devoid of American troops. It is this fear of Iranian expansionism which has prompted the furious battle over Bahrain, a majority Shiite population ruled by a Saudi-friendly Sunni minority. Iran has very likely been fuelling the riots across the small island nation in the hope of encouraging regime change, a Shiite and Iran-friendly government, and thereby gaining an opening to project its influence in neighbouring Saudi Arabia. That’s also why the Saudis moved forcefully to support the Bahraini government in fending off protestors, and why the West watched silently. The rights of a few protestors in a tiny Middle Eastern nation are a small price to pay for holding back Iranian influence.

The growth of Iranian power is not just a Middle Eastern affair, either. Remember: Iran has a considerable naval presence in the Gulf, and with it, the ability to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a channel for over two-thirds of the world’s oil supplies. To do so might be contrary to Iran’s immediate self-interest but it provides Iran with bargaining power, a kill-switch against any threats. This, in addition to the development of nuclear weapons, would present enormous complications in any attempt to take action against Iran in the future.

Does this sound like a nuclear, nation-state version of a suicide bomber? We need to stop seeing Iran as an unstable, fundamentalist regime itching to take out Israel. Only then will we see the real problem that it poses.

Sam Murray is in his first year of a combined Bachelor of Laws and Bachelor of Arts.